On June 10, the leaders at the Washington, D.C.-based America’s Health Insurance Plans (AHIP) released the results of a study on the costs associated with COVID-19 testing, through an announcement posted on the association’s blog.
Under the headline, “New Study: COVID-19 Testing Costs Could Reach $25 Billion A Year For Diagnostic, $19 Billion A Year For Antibody,” AHIP’s senior vice president, communications, Kristine Grow summarized the results of the study. The blog posted under her name stated that, “To help inform reopen strategies, AHIP retained Wakely Consulting Group to explore the potential costs of COVID-19 testing, including both diagnostic (molecular or antigen) and antibody testing considering different frequencies and costs of testing. The study found that diagnostic testing would cost between $6 billion and $25 billion a year, and antibody testing would cost between $5 billion and $19 billion a year. These estimates include both the cost of the tests, as well as affiliated health care services (e.g., provider visit, urgent care visit) for administering the tests.”
As part of that work, the blog noted, “Wakely developed a range of potential costs associated with outpatient (diagnostic and antibody) testing that may fall under the three common purposes of tests:
Medical necessary tests, to diagnose or treat COVID-19.
Public health tests, to collect and analyze the prevalence of COVID-19 in the population on an ongoing basis.
Occupational health tests, to ensure workplaces that are safe and to significantly reduce the risks of exposure to COVID-19.
The analysis does not distinguish between testing that is medically necessary for patient treatment and testing designed for public health or occupational health purposes,” the blog noted. “As noted in the report, there is still a great deal of uncertainty on how testing strategies will be developed and deployed – including what tests will be used, and how many tests a person might receive per year on average. Given this uncertainty, the total cost of testing will be less than the combination of the costs of diagnostic and antibody tests. There is also great uncertainty on what these tests will cost, as well as the cost to administer them, resulting in a wide range of estimates. This report is a supplement to a separate analysis that Wakely conducted on estimated COVID-19 treatment costs for 2020 and 2021. That study found that costs to treat COVID-19 for 2020 and 2021 could reach over $200 billion, excluding testing costs and accounting for deferred or delayed care.”
In the report itself, authors Michael Cohen, Ph.D. and Julie Peper stated that their key findings included the following:
• The annual estimated cost for diagnostic testing ranges from $6.0 to $25.1 billion, while the estimated cost for antibody testing ranges from $5.2 to $19.1 billion. The sum of these amounts does not represent our estimate of the high end cost of testing, as it is still unknown which type of testing will be more widely used and the extent to which the two types of testing may be substitutes for one another, especially in a mass testing environment. While it is expected that some people will get both tests, it is more likely that a person will get one test or the other. Thus, while there may be some overlap in the costs of the two types of testing, there may also be reasons that there will be significant costs from both tests.
• There remain large levels of uncertainty on the level of utilization for tests. The difference between current levels of testing and recommended levels of testing to maintain a sentinel effect to reduce the spread of the virus produce large differences in overall utilization.
• Testing costs, especially where the test is given and the associated costs, also matter. Small differences in unit costs can produce large aggregate increases in costs. It is expected that higher costs per test will be associated with less testing, while mass testing would like result in lower per test costs.
• Given the uncertainty, there is a wide range of the overall cost for testing for COVID. At the upper end of estimates, the total annual costs of testing could have a material impact on overall costs to insurers.
