New research by a team of healthcare researchers at MIT in Cambridge, Mass. indicates that officially documented rates both of COVID-19 infection and COVID-19 mortality are dramatically underestimating the actual spread of the disease.
As a press release published on June 30 noted, “New research by a team at MIT Sloan School of Management examined 84 of the most affected countries—spanning 4.75 billion people—and estimate 88.5 million cases and 600 thousand deaths through June 18, 2020, which is 12 times and 1.5 times higher than official reports, respectively. Absent breakthroughs in treatment or vaccines, and with only mild improvements in policies to control the pandemic, the researchers estimate a total of 249 million (186-586) cases and 1.75 million (1.40-3.67) deaths by Spring 2021.”
Future cases and deaths are now less dependent on testing and more contingent on the willingness of communities and governments to reduce transmission, they add. The researchers’ work is presented in a newly published academic paper.
The paper, “Estimating the Global Spread of COVID-19,” is co-authored by MIT Sloan’s Hazhir Rahmandad, Associate Professor of System Dynamics; Professor John Sterman, Director of the MIT Systems Dynamics Group; and Ph.D. candidate Tse Yang Lim.
As the researchers write in the abstract to their article, “Limited and inconsistent testing and differences in age distribution, health care resources, social distancing, and policies have caused large variations in the extent and dynamics of the COVID-19 pandemic across nations, complicating the estimation of prevalence, the infection fatality rate (IFR), and other factors important to care providers and policymakers. Using data for all 84 countries with reliable testing data (spanning 4.75 billion people) we develop a dynamic epidemiological model integrating data on cases, deaths, excess mortality and other factors to estimate how asymptomatic transmission, disease acuity, hospitalization, and behavioral and policy responses to risk condition prevalence and IFR across nations and over time.”
In that context, the researchers write, “For these nations we estimate IFR averages 0.68percent (0.64 percent-0.7 percent). Cases and deaths through June 18, 2020 are estimated to be 11.8 and 1.48 times official reports, respectively, at 88.5 (85-95.3) million and 600 (586-622) thousand. Prevalence and IFR vary substantially, e.g., Ecuador (18 percent; 0.61 percent), Chile (15.5 percent; 0.57 percent), Mexico (8.8 percent; 0.69 percent), Iran (7.9 percent; 0.44 percent), USA (5.3 percent; 0.99 percent), UK (5.2 percent; 1.59 percent), Iceland (1.65 percent, 0.56percent), New Zealand (0.1 percent, 0.64 percent), but all nations remain well below the level needed for herd immunity. By alerting the public earlier and reducing contacts, extensive testing when the pandemic was declared could have averted 35.3 (32.7-42.7) million cases and 197 (171-232) thousand deaths. However, future outcomes are less dependent on testing and more contingent on the willingness of communities and governments to reduce transmission. Absent breakthroughs in treatment or vaccination and with mildly improved responses we project 249 (186-586) million cases and 1.75 (1.40-3.67) million deaths in the 84 countries by Spring 2021.”
