Analysis: CBO Revises Estimate on How Many Would Lose Health Insurance Coverage
A new analysis published days after the U.S. House of Representatives passed its bill to enable the 2026 federal budget, has found a far higher estimate—15.7 million people— of the number of Americans who could lose health insurance coverage if the bill passed by the House of Representatives on May 22 were enacted into law.
On May 23, the nonpartisan Center on Budget and Policy Priorities took the revised figures published by the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) after the House Republican caucus had made changes to its bill before pushing it through the House on May 22, and revised upwards the numbers of people who would be affected.
The analysis, entitled “By the Numbers: House Bill Takes Health Coverage Away From Millions of People and Raises Families’ Health Care Costs,” began thus: “The House has passed a reconciliation bill that would take health coverage away from millions of people and dramatically raise health care costs for millions more. Here are some of the impacts:
Ø Roughly 15 million people by 2034 would lose health coverage and become uninsured because of the Medicaid cuts, the bill’s failure to extend enhanced premium tax credits for Affordable Care Act (ACA) marketplace coverage, and other harmful ACA marketplace changes, according to estimates from the Congressional Budget Office (CBO). This figure could well rise to account for last-minute changes in the House that made the bill harsher.
Ø CBO estimates project that 7.6 million people would become uninsured due to Medicaid policies passed by the Energy and Commerce Committee (E&C)
Ø 1.8 million people would become uninsured due to codification of the Trump Administration marketplace rule provisions, which the E&C Committee also passed.
Ø 2.1 million people would become uninsured because of marketplace policies passed by the Ways and Means Committee.
Ø An additional 4.2 million people would lose marketplace coverage because the legislation fails to extend the premium tax credit enhancements.”
The analysis adds that, “When people lose their health coverage, they lose access to preventive and primary care, care for life-threatening conditions, and treatments for chronic conditions. For example, a person with diabetes who loses health coverage would lose the ability to properly manage their condition so they can maintain their health as well as their employment.”
With regard to Medicaid specifically, the Center found that, “According to CBO, an earlier version of the bill would cut Medicaid by at least $716 billion, the largest cut in the program’s history. Between 9.7 million and 14.4 million people in the expansion population would be at risk of losing Medicaid under a provision that takes coverage away from people who don’t meet a harsh work requirement. Estimates of how many of those at risk will lose coverage vary,” the analysis finds. “We estimate that if coverage losses mirror those experienced in Arkansas when it implemented similar requirements, some 7 million people would lose coverage.
Two-thirds of people aged 19-64 receiving Medicaid in 2023 worked during the year, and many of those who didn’t were taking care of a family member or had an illness or disability.
This expansive work requirement will harm parents, people with disabilities, and those with other chronic illnesses because past experience shows that exemptions don’t work. Even people who are supposed to be protected — and those who are working — lose coverage when they get caught in bureaucratic red tape.”
The full analysis can be found here.
