Trump Administration health policies in the U.S., Brexit and austerity in Europe, heavy M&A activity, and the targeting of healthcare by Amazon and Apple is adding up to an “Era of Uncertainty” in healthcare, according to Kalorama Information.
The healthcare market research firm said that while healthcare is constantly changing, current global socio-economic trends are quickly changing the way that virtually all industries operate. And in healthcare, there are 27 potential disruptors that the firm has identified that could have large impact on the market. Kalorama Information’s report, “The Era of Uncertainty in Healthcare: 27 Factors That Could Disrupt the Market,” discusses these factors and makes forecasts for the next ten years.
Changes that particularly impact the healthcare industry include:
- New U.S. administration: Attempts to repeal ACA, statements about drug pricing, information technology policies, repeal of the individual mandate, and other changes are currently underway.
- Rising rates of disease diagnosis and treatment: While reimbursement and supply may be issues, what is clear is more patients globally are being diagnosed for disease.
- Mergers and acquisitions in the healthcare sector: A high rate of mergers has occurred as companies seek growth by acquisition and seek new technologies and expertise.
- High and rising out of pocket spending on healthcare: U.S. rates of out of pocket spending are on the rise, while globally there is increased private insurance and some out-of-pocket.
- Physician shortages: Supply provision may be threatened as the population of physician decreases.
Kalorama notes that increasing population is a factor. Over the past 50 years, the world’s population has expanded significantly and over the next decade, this growth is expected to continue. As shown in Exhibit 2-1, the total population expanded by 1.14% per year from 6.8 billion in 2008 to more than 7.6 billion in 2018 and is expected to exceed 8.5 billion by 2028. Greatest growth will occur in Africa at an estimated 2.55% per year, followed by Oceana at 1.43% per year, and Asia at 0.94% annually.
