2020 Predictions

Nov. 15, 2011
Really going out on a limb, here's a prediction of the outcome of each of the previous 2010 ventures 10 years later: 1. The Acquisition — the

Really going out on a limb, here's a prediction of the outcome of each of the previous 2010 ventures 10 years later:

1. The Acquisition — the multi-billion dollar, multi-national firm will divest its HIS vendor in order to return to its core competency, just like:

  1. GTE — bought MedSeries 4 from IHC, then sold it to SMS (shocking)
  2. Revlon — bought MIS from Technicon, sold it to the Whiteheads (not just a cosmetic change)
  3. AllTel — bought TDS, sold it to Eclipsys (at speed of light)
  4. McDonell-Douglas — bought HFC, MHS, etc, sold all to American Express (on credit?)
  5. Dupont — bought Trinity RIS system, sold it (when it failed the acid test)
  6. AT&T — bought Texas-based Infostat, then sold (a long distance from their NJ HQ)
  7. Bell Atlantic — bought Stat-LAN, then sold out (rang no one's bell...)
  8. Ferranti — bought Pentamation, then sold it to Keane (for the long term)
  9. Misys bought Patient One (ex-UltiCare) from Per Se, re-named it CPR, sold it to QuadraMed (4th owner = "Quadra?!")
  10. Etc, etc., etc.

2. New Product — the new product from an HIS vendor experienced:

a. Bugs and technical problems delayed the beta site

b. Product delivery broken down into a series of releases: 1, 2, 3, etc.

c. Pricing and packaging modified (increased) accordingly

d. Technical difficulties encountered with new release of OS and DB

e. Delivery dates per release slide several quarters/years...

f. Turnover in product management at vendor HQ, new releases & dates

g. Releases broken down into sub-releases: 1.a, 1.b, 1.c, then 2.a, 2.b, etc.

h. Each encountering technical difficulties and delays (months, quarters...)

i. Product re-named, with new release nomenclature and new dates...

j. Finally completed circa 2020, but a better version being developed...

3. New Vendor — the new HIS vendor exits the market, citing:

a. Unexpected technical difficulties encountered at beta site

b. Longer time than expected to complete releases/versions

c. Turnover in executive and middle-management staff

d. An attractive offer by a new owner that could not be refused

e. New owner takes the product off the market, and/or combines it with another.

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