McKinsey & Company, a global management and consulting firm headquartered in New York City, released the results of a survey on Aug. 12 entitled “U.S. hospital patient volumes move back towards 2019 levels.”
The survey reports that “McKinsey surveyed leaders at 100 private sector hospitals across the United States in late July to examine how COVID-19 continued to impact hospital volume. Emergency department and inpatient volumes have returned to 2019 levels, with respondents noting they expect it to be roughly five to six percent higher in 2022. Outpatient and procedural volumes were three to four percent above 2019 levels in July, and are expected to be six to eight percent higher in 2022.”
Further, “More than a third of provider respondents said they expected patient demand to exceed capacity in psychiatry and orthopedic surgery in the next six months. Roughly a fourth said they expect the same challenge in cardiology and gastroenterology. Plastic surgery and ophthalmology continue to have large decreases in outpatient volume when compared to 2019. To address these challenges, more than 50 percent of hospital respondents said they would expand their clinic hours to increase outpatient access. Other provider responses include hiring more physicians, increasing physician productivity expectations, hiring more clinical support staff, increasing marketing to patients, and proactively calling patients who have delayed care. Some COVID-19-related challenges, however, remain, including a shortage of nurses and clinical support staff, and some patients continuing to delay care.”
Some key highlights from the survey include:
- Approximately 45 percent indicated access to specialty care is worse today than in 2019
- Approximately 30 percent reported increasing physician productivity expectations due to COVID-19
- Providers anticipate shifting 10 percent of surgical volume to outpatient settings by 2023
- Hospitals located in the Midwest reported inpatient admissions are the highest level above the 2019 baseline
- Hospitals located in the West reported inpatient admissions are still below the 2019 baseline
- Approximately 60 percent of hospitals report new patient specialist appointments are being scheduled in less than 14 days, on average
- Approximately 35 percent of providers expect patient demand to exceed provider capacity in psychiatry and orthopedic surgery in the next six months
- Approximately 64 percent of providers reported availability of clinical support staff as a barrier to increase outpatient clinic volumes in the upcoming months
- Approximately 65 percent of providers reported that hiring additional clinical support staff is an action they are taking to increase outpatient clinic volume
- Approximately 30 percent of respondents reported new expansion plans to increase the number of employed physicians due to COVID-19
- On average, U.S. providers shifted approximately 20 percent of outpatient visits to virtual care in 2020, yet that number decreased by approximately 13 percent in July 2021
- Family medicine and psychiatry are the specialties where virtual care is most often used
The authors of the survey are listed as Gretchen Berlin, R.N., a senior partner in McKinsey’s Washington, D.C., office and a registered nurse; David Bueno, a partner in the Atlanta office; Kyle Gibler, M.D., a partner in the Charlotte office; John Schulz, M.D., an associate partner in the Chicago office; and Joanna Wexler, a consultant in the New York office. The article was edited by Elizabeth Newman, an executive editor in the Chicago office.
