KP Study of EHR Data Finds Sharp Rise in Youth Diabetes During Pandemic

Oct. 23, 2023
Study of Kaiser Permanente member data shows that during the pandemic, rates of new-onset type 2 diabetes diagnoses jumped 62 percent, mostly driven by increases in 10- to 19-year-olds

A study of more than 1 million Kaiser Permanente members ages 19 and younger found that rates of both type 1 and type 2 diabetes increased sharply among children during the COVID-19 pandemic, particularly for those ages 10 and older, male children, and children in specific racial and ethnic groups.

The study, published Sept. 21, 2023, in JAMA Network Open, adds to growing evidence of an uptick in diabetes during the pandemic. It builds on prior research by considering a longer timeline and by taking a closer look at potential disparities in rates of newly diagnosed diabetes among children of different ages, genders, and racial and ethnic groups.

“In this prolonged pandemic period, it is now more important than ever to be aware of a possible increased risk of new-onset diabetes in children,” said the study’s lead author Matthew Mefford, Ph.D., of the Kaiser Permanente Southern California Department of Research and Evaluation, in a statement.

The researchers compared rates of newly diagnosed type 1 and type 2 diabetes among children before and after the pandemic began.

More specifically, they examined the electronic health records of Kaiser Permanente members younger than 20 and compared the rates of new-onset diabetes from the pre-pandemic period of 2016 through 2019 to rates from 2020 through 2021. The total number of patient records analyzed ranged from 979,710 children in 2016 to 1,028,997 children in 2021.

They found that, overall, rates of newly diagnosed diabetes increased during the pandemic compared to before the pandemic, with a markedly greater increase of type 2 diabetes.

Rates of new-onset type 1 diabetes increased by 17 percent, an uptick that was primarily driven by increased diagnosis among 10- to 19-year-olds, male children, and Hispanic youth. Rates of new-onset type 2 diabetes increased by 62 percent, mostly driven by increases in 10- to 19-year-olds, Black and Hispanic youth, and both male and female children, with males experiencing a greater increase.

“Our results are very much in alignment with prior research showing concerning trends in the incidence of diabetes—a disease that affects such a large proportion of children,” Mefford said. “We identified specific groups of kids who could potentially benefit from higher prioritization for screening and monitoring to try and reduce the disparities we found.”

The underlying reasons for the rise in new-onset diabetes during the pandemic remain unclear. John Martin, M.D., an internal medicine specialist with the Southern California Permanente Medical Group, said that it is possibly caused by some combination of the biological effects of COVID-19 infection and exacerbation of traditional diabetes risk factors, such as limited exercise, sleep disturbances, and eating processed foods. More research is needed to clarify these possible drivers.

“There are a lot of presumptions at this point, but nobody really knows yet why this is happening,” Martin said in a statement. “What we’re seeing across a large swatch of patients is the possibility that COVID-19 infection could be associated with an increased risk of diabetes and should probably be considered a new risk factor when making screening decisions — especially for patients who start showing traditional symptoms of diabetes when you, as a clinician, weren’t expecting it.”

“As an organization, Kaiser Permanente is focused on prevention, and better screening translates to better prevention of both disease and complications of disease,” Martin added. “We hope that greater awareness of the rising trends shown in our study prompts action on the part of physicians and families.”

Looking ahead, the research team hopes to continue investigating increased rates of diabetes and their potential causes.